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The Third Rail

An Online Publication of the Virginia Policy Review

Syria Without Assad: What Russia Stands to Lose

1/23/2025

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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's asylum in Moscow marks a turning point, leaving Russia grappling with diminished diplomatic, military, and economic influence in a post-Assad, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Syria amid the prioritized Russia-Ukraine conflict.

On December 8, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad landed in Moscow and was granted asylum on humanitarian grounds, leaving behind a rebel-ruled Syria and the legacy of a decades-long regime backed by Russia. The now-marred Assad family “dynasty” had been formerly supported by the Soviet Union, both due to Baathist-Soviet ideological alignment and as a byproduct of Cold War-era power dynamics in the Middle East. Russian President Vladimir Putin inherited these vested priorities, helping to keep Bashar al-Assad's regime intact during the Syrian Civil War and thereafter while maintaining its enduring diplomatic commitments, tactically-situated military bases, and evolving economic interests in conflict-ridden Syria. With Assad now out of Syria and no longer in power, Russia is likely to suffer a major geopolitical loss in the Middle East along these diplomatic, military, and economic fronts. As the Russia-Ukraine war remains the Kremlin’s priority, it is unclear whether Russia currently has the bandwidth to preserve its holdings in Syria by negotiating with the new HTS-led Syrian government.


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Artificial Intelligence: An Evolving Threat to US National Security

1/22/2025

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Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to revolutionize nearly every aspect of contemporary life, ranging from healthcare and transportation to education and entertainment, as well as significantly transforming military capabilities. AI is a machine-based system that, when provided with human-like objectives, can analyze data to provide timely predictions, information, and recommendations on complex subjects. While the potential benefits of AI are vast, including enhanced medical diagnoses, industry efficiency, and scientific research breakthroughs, it also represents a significant threat to the national security of the United States.

The increasing proliferation and deployment of artificial intelligence constitute a significant threat to US national security, as this technology is susceptible to malicious actors who can exploit it to create disinformation, engage in cyber-attacks, augment surveillance capabilities, and even harness it for military applications to harm American interests and security. As we navigate the opportunities and challenges presented by artificial intelligence, it is paramount to strike a balance between utilizing this advanced technology as a critical instrument for maintaining US preeminence and security while also guarding against the potential threats posed by AI. Given the broad impacts and ramifications of artificial intelligence developments, AI has emerged as one of the most pressing security threats confronting the United States.


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