Replacing Bashar with HTS: A False Sense of Safety for Israel

While the situation in Syria highlights Iran’s eroding foothold and Israel’s growing sense of control, Israel now faces the challenge of an unpredictable HTS-led Syrian government.
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On December 15, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved a plan to double the Israeli population in the Golan Heights, as Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz justified the initiative due to “enormous security importance.” After Bashar Al-Assad, the former president of Syria, was ousted by rebel forces who took over Syria, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Syria’s military assets, marking its first entry into Syrian territory in 50 years and expanding its ground control in the Golan Heights. Bashar’s falling is great news for Israel, for now. The Iranian threat has been weakened (again), and Israeli troops are already taking control of the northern border. Nonetheless, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) replacing Bashar is still not the best news for Israel’s safety.

The latest events in Syria are once again demonstrating how Israel has been gaining power over Iran and its axis of resistance throughout this year. Israel’s recent operations in Syria and in the Golan Heights reflect Israel’s strategy to have control over the situation to ensure its safety. Eventually, Syria’s new leaders are less predictable and might represent a new threat to Israel in the Middle East.

Israel is safer because Iran is weaker

Iran’s loss of its Syrian ally, combined with a year of setbacks, is good news for Israel’s security.

Israel has one less enemy to worry about now that Iran has lost another member of its axis of resistance, the Iran-led alliance of regional militias and state actors opposing Western and Israeli influence. Bashar al-Assad was a threat to Israel because he was a perfect conduit to transfer Iranian weapons to Hezbollah, an anti-Israel Lebanese group considered terrorists by the United States and the EU. Now he is gone, weakening Iran's tools against Israel. As Dennis Ross, a veteran and former U.S. government official focused on the Middle East, tweeted: “Its (Iran’s) enormous investment in Syria has gone down the drain.”

A weaker Iran makes Israel safer, and Iran has only gotten weaker over this year. First, Israel intercepted failed Iranian attacks in April, exposing the latter’s poor military capabilities. Regarding Iran’s proxies, Israel has eliminated most of Hamas’ leadership (another Iran- backed group, also considered terrorist by the United States and the EU), including Yahya Sinwar, but also top leaders of Hamas’ military wing, Muhammad Deif and Marwan Issa. Israeli forces have also taken down Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and blew up hundreds of pagers which have killed numerous Hezbollah’s fighters. On November 5, Trump won the election and may once again pursue an aggressive policy against Iran while providing extra leverage and support to Israel. Jonathan Swan, a political reporter who covers Trump, claims that Trump’s upcoming term is “bad news for Iran.” Bashar is gone, Iran does not seem to have much leverage left against Israel, and now Israel is gaining ground control in Syria.

Israel entering Syrian soil creates immediate control in an unstable context

By leveraging the strategic location of the Golan Heights and targeting Bashar’s military assets, Israel is taking decisive action to protect itself.

Israel’s immediate invasion of the Golan Heights and the Syrian border after Bashar’s ouster demonstrates a willingness to take action for its own safety. Israeli troops have entered the demilitarized buffer zone inside Syria, established after the 1973 Yom Kippur War and which has been patrolled by U.N. troops until last week. As Netanyahu said in a statement: “Strengthening the Golan is strengthening the State of Israel, and it is especially important at this time.” The Golan Heights were part of Syria until the end of the 1967 Six-Day War when Israel started occupying it before annexing it unilaterally in 1981, which was recognized by the United States in 2019. Although the occupation is supposed to be temporary and necessary for immediate security purposes (according to Netanyahu), it still gives Israel leverage and control over potential threats coming from Syrian rebels. Israel prefers to rely on itself for security rather than trust the new HTS-led Syrian government, particularly given the Golan Heights’ shared and contentious history between the two nations.

Israel’s very first attacks are strategic in preventing enemies from accessing Assad’s military arsenal. Israel already destroyed at least 70% of Syria’s military assets, preventing the rebels or other enemies from reaching them. Israel Katz congratulated the operations leading to “the destruction of the Syrian Navy,” as Netanyahu explained the attacks by affirming: “We certainly intend to do whatever is needed to guarantee our security.” Israel not only became safer after the fall of Bashar but is now reinforcing its safety by expanding its control in the Golan Heights and taking down Bashar’s military assets. However, Israel needs to watch for an unpredictable HTS-led Syrian government which adds another potential threat in the region.

HTS leading Syria is not good news for Israel

While HTS leaders currently affirm their focus on Syria, Israel remains wary of HTS’s future ambitions in the Middle East and its potential claims to the Golan Heights.

Despite their current internal focus, HTS has previously expressed hostility toward Israel and claimed they want to eventually reach Jerusalem. The Times of India recently released an undated video of HTS’ leader Al-Jolani claiming that after capturing Damascus, HTS would “liberate Jerusalem.” However, Al-Jolani also recently declared he did not want to get involved in a conflict with Israel, despite his condemnation of Israel’s invasion of the Golan Heights. He emphasizes being focused on Syria for now. These statements create uncertainty about HTS’s future intentions, fueling Israel’s wariness.

If HTS is focused on Syria, it might soon want to claim the former Syrian Golan Heights, which Israel is currently controlling. Israel’s presence on Syrian soil may provoke resentment among Syrian factions, potentially leading to future escalation. As HTS’ leader, Al-Jolani, said during an interview, “the Israelis have clearly crossed the lines of engagement in Syria, which poses a threat of unwarranted escalation in the region,” despite affirming that the rebels did not intend to engage in any conflict with Israel for now. He mentions that Syria does not want to fight Israel because of current circumstances and priorities, such as rebuilding the country post-Assad, not because he is opposed to the idea of striking Israel. Reuters reported that Al-Jolani acknowledged the impact of years of conflict, stating: “after years of conflict and war, (the current situation) does not allow for new confrontations.” Therefore, it seems like HTS is not yet ready to attack Israel. However, Al-Jolani has not excluded a potential future escalation with Israel, which would be enhanced by Israel’s incremental territorial expansion and prolonged presence in the Golan Heights.

Looking ahead, Israel’s current security may become less certain if its military actions in the Golan Heights generate significant resentment among Syria’s new leadership. While Netanyahu’s decision to bolster troop numbers in the buffer zone may enhance Israel’s immediate safety and sense of control, it also risks fueling anti-Israel sentiment among HTS leaders, potentially escalating future tensions.
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Paul Lameta

Paul Lameta is a master's student in International Affairs at Sciences Po Lyon, France. He is also completing graduate certificates in Public Leadership and Public Policy at the Frank Batten School of Public Policy and Leadership, at the University of Virginia. He earned his Bachelor's degree in Political Science and Government Studies from Sciences Po Lyon. His primary areas of interest include international relations and geopolitics, with a focus on the Middle East, Europe, and East Asia. Paul has experience as a campaign assistant during the 2024 legislative elections in France and has been involved in project development, notably co-founding Entr’Étudiants, an association addressing student anxiety in Lyon through corporate partnerships and public funding.

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